← Back to fixtures

Parma vs Monza

Sun 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Parma win: 45.0%

Draw: 32.0%

Monza win: 23.0%

Predicted: Parma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.02

More corners: Parma (58.5% home / 41.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Parma

Yes

Probability Parma wins or draws: 82.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Parma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 32%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Parma (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Parma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.