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Roma vs Fiorentina

Mon 24 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Roma win: 55.4%

Draw: 28.2%

Fiorentina win: 16.4%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.69

More corners: Roma (75.7% home / 24.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 80.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 28%). (55.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.