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Roma vs Genoa

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Roma win: 57.1%

Draw: 27.8%

Genoa win: 15.1%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Roma (79.0% home / 21.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 83.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 28%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (79.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.