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Roma vs Inter

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Roma win: 18.6%

Draw: 29.5%

Inter win: 51.9%

Predicted: Inter

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.11

More corners: Roma (55.5% home / 44.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Inter

Yes

Probability Inter wins or draws: 76.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Inter Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 30%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Inter win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.