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Roma vs Juventus

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Roma win: 30.4%

Draw: 32.4%

Juventus win: 37.2%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.37

More corners: Roma (59.6% home / 40.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 73.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.