← Back to fixtures

Sassuolo vs Cagliari

Sat 20 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 29 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 42.4%

Draw: 31.7%

Cagliari win: 25.9%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.13

More corners: Sassuolo (50.4% home / 49.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 72.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sassuolo Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.