← Back to fixtures

Sassuolo vs Genoa

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 40.9%

Draw: 34.3%

Genoa win: 24.8%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.36

More corners: Sassuolo (54.8% home / 45.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 73.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.