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Sassuolo vs Juventus

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 14.9%

Draw: 25.2%

Juventus win: 59.9%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Juventus (33.0% home / 67.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 81.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 25%). (60.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.