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Sassuolo vs Lazio

Tue 27 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 36.4%

Draw: 33.7%

Lazio win: 29.9%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.96

More corners: Lazio (46.6% home / 53.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lazio

Yes

Probability Lazio wins or draws: 74.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lazio win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.