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Sassuolo vs Lecce

Sat 17 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 48.0%

Draw: 32.7%

Lecce win: 19.3%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Sassuolo (57.5% home / 42.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 74.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sassuolo Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 33%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.