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Sassuolo vs Monza

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 54.9%

Draw: 30.3%

Monza win: 14.7%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Sassuolo (60.5% home / 39.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 83.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sassuolo Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 30%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Sassuolo (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.