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Sassuolo vs Parma

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Sassuolo win: 49.1%

Draw: 31.3%

Parma win: 19.6%

Predicted: Sassuolo

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.47

More corners: Sassuolo (59.7% home / 40.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 74.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Sassuolo Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 31%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Corners Sassuolo (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.