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Udinese vs Cagliari

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Udinese win: 46.1%

Draw: 31.2%

Cagliari win: 22.7%

Predicted: Udinese

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.69

More corners: Udinese (61.7% home / 38.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 76.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Udinese Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 31%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Udinese (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.