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Udinese vs Genoa

Sat 01 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Udinese win: 45.7%

Draw: 30.9%

Genoa win: 23.4%

Predicted: Udinese

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.72

More corners: Udinese (67.2% home / 32.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 73.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Udinese Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 31%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Udinese (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.