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Udinese vs Lecce

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Udinese win: 50.2%

Draw: 32.3%

Lecce win: 17.5%

Predicted: Udinese

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.8

More corners: Udinese (71.1% home / 28.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 80.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Udinese Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 32%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Udinese (more corners) (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (81.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.