← Back to fixtures

Udinese vs Napoli

Sat 09 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Udinese win: 24.0%

Draw: 25.7%

Napoli win: 50.2%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Napoli (45.0% home / 55.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 79.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (50% vs next-best 26%). (50.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.