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Venezia vs Atalanta

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Venezia win: 22.3%

Draw: 26.9%

Atalanta win: 50.8%

Predicted: Atalanta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.82

More corners: Atalanta (27.0% home / 73.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Atalanta

Yes

Probability Atalanta wins or draws: 79.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Atalanta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 27%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Atalanta (more corners) (73.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Atalanta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.