← Back to fixtures

Venezia vs Cagliari

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Venezia win: 27.6%

Draw: 33.5%

Cagliari win: 38.9%

Predicted: Cagliari

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.5%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.58

More corners: Cagliari (39.9% home / 60.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Cagliari

Yes

Probability Cagliari wins or draws: 71.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Corners Cagliari (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Cagliari win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.