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Venezia vs Fiorentina

Fri 11 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Venezia win: 26.0%

Draw: 31.6%

Fiorentina win: 42.4%

Predicted: Fiorentina

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.11

More corners: Fiorentina (37.5% home / 62.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fiorentina

Yes

Probability Fiorentina wins or draws: 76.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Fiorentina Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Corners Fiorentina (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fiorentina win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (76.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.