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Venezia vs Lazio

Sat 19 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Venezia win: 24.8%

Draw: 29.2%

Lazio win: 46.0%

Predicted: Lazio

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.21

More corners: Lazio (35.5% home / 64.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lazio

Yes

Probability Lazio wins or draws: 78.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lazio Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Lazio (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lazio win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.