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Venezia vs Milan

Sat 22 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Venezia win: 21.1%

Draw: 26.7%

Milan win: 52.2%

Predicted: Milan

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.11

More corners: Milan (29.7% home / 70.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Milan

Yes

Probability Milan wins or draws: 79.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Milan Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 27%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Milan (more corners) (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Milan win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.